The end of Northern rail.

[steam for ever]

I think we have established that all of us hate this wretched company and likewise their pathetic inadequate and dangerous little trains, if you can call them that at best.

Thing is though, the franchisetime runs out next year, so this would explain the lack of new trains in the manchester hub plans. A big question is who will replace Northern?

I personally think it will be First group that will take over runnning over many lines and possibly Arriva for some of the more southerly lines.

When the Northern nightmare (a good catchphrase?) ends in 2011 it is probable that 142s will be phased out completely as more 170s are ordered and many more 150s cascaded from elsewhere. This 150 release is set to happen all over the country so the 142 class of pacer could well dissapear from all but the furthest reaches of the map.
This would also explain the reluctance to refurbish tired stock.
In the slightly longer term (around 2015) all 150s could dissapear from the ex Northern network as they are transferred to south wales and the south west.

The 170/2s (or 3s by that time) will be the centre for most traffic by then.


Now you will want proof?
Well none as such that makes it definate but all the signs are in place.

1. Northern know they have lost and are stagnating and are sure (in public) that their stock is adequate and safe. first who are the most likely contender for much of the network are currently introducing new stock (transpennine are anyway, which is closest).

2. Ahead of time, the 142s are being seen in less and less numbers with the 150 cascade starting.

3. Development plans state faster services and better reliability, something which cannot be done unless new stock is obtained.

4. In a final attempt to save face and the company, many 156s have appeared, too late of course but a sign that they know that any other company would instantly bring better standards.

5. We know it is going to end badly for them, escpecially when you paint the statiosn in east German colours. yes they are, have a look!


This may well be wishful thinking, but with other regions of the UK raising the standards and ever more complaints and safety concerns come to light, it is not long before something MUST be done in order to keep the railway going.... and the passengers alive.

I may have got one or two points wrong here, but come next year things should get better for those in the north.

[WatcherZero]

How can Northern have lost when the government hasnt even set the specifications for bidders? Rumours ive been hearing is they will have a two year franchise extention to 2013 and then TPE and Northern will be merged into a new franchise.

[Deathbyteacup]

Uhm, First and Arriva both had the franchise before Nothern, and both were worse if you ask me. At any rate it was the same broken dodgy trains.

The Franchise agreement specifies Nothern do not need to invest in any new trains, anyway.

[Tony]

SFE doesn't seem to know that non of the privatised companies can introduce new trains without specific authority from the DfT. I am sure that they would like to operate as fully independent companies but in fact only act as agents for the DfT who lays down very tight parameters, thereby tying them into a rigid straightjacket.
What in fact has happened is that British Rail was farmed out to private capital but control was kept in the centre as it always was. This is the government's "off sheet financing initiative".

[steam for ever]

DFT alone? Well it is strange then that this area of the UK has not recieved anything new or even second hand. I am saying that Northern has not even applied for permission for any new trains. Arriva and First both had awful trains, but since those days both companies have (are still) going through some amazing transformations.

I doubt that Northern's franchise could be extended to 2013 if a safety inspector made a random visit to Newton Heath! If he doesn't notice anything then there is some corruption afoot.

[WatcherZero]

Yeah blame the last franchise round, Northern (and one other toc also known for overcrowding) were let by the government on a Zero growth assumption, that is Northern recieves a tiny share of ticket revenue for running the service with everything else going back to the government, if theirs any growth the government recieves more and Northern has no financial incentive to invest in new stock (in fact a disincentive as they would never be able to repay the cost of the stock even if they had ordered it at the beginning). Of course despite the governments outlook passengers have risen by 60-70% on Northern.

Other franchises were let on a growth formula where new rolling stock could be discounted from the revenue the companies pay to the government and thus over the length of the franchise could be repayed.

A second but also significant block on the market is the Dft specifies or approves all contracts for rental or new aquistion meaning the rolling stock companies that were already being run by banks as safe and stable assets not requiring any new investment are even further stopped from investing in new stock on their own back in anticipation of demand instead of when the dft requests it.

[Deathbyteacup]

I doubt that Northern's franchise could be extended to 2013 if a safety inspector made a random visit to Newton Heath!

Just out of curiosity, what sort of thing is out of place?

[Midland Compound]

Well I for one was quite impressed with my lasst ride on a Northern train. Had to go from Liverpool to St Helens last weekend. Was expecting it to be a class 142. Instead all the stock at Lime street was class 156s. Had a nice refurnished (comfortable) unit that ran very smoothly.

Prefer this company over Virgin any day !

[davat]

[B][U]GOOD NEWS AND BAD NEWS.
The good news is that Northern are going to get some more DMU's, now for the bad news the seven or so pacers sent to FGW are to return by the end of the year. They are due to get 8 x 150's and loose 4 x 156's.
This all part of the governments planned new vehicles as per the 2008 Rolling stock plan, i.e for new vehicles read recycled oldsters tarted up.
All that happens more seats are provided within certain TOC's by playing Pass the DMU around.
Oh the 180's that Northern use are being returned to the leasing companies.

[Deathbyteacup]

Sounds more like bad than good if you ask me.